Thursday, November 8, 2012

Nobody's perfect: Nate Silver and the imperfect art of prediction

Nate Silver, the New York Times prognosticator who became something of a controversial figure in the final days of the 2012 presidential campaign, has seen an 850 percent spike of his book sales since nailing his electoral predictions yesterdayBy NATE SILVER. If President Obama wins re-election on Tuesday, the historical memory of the race might turn on the role played by Hurricane Sandy. Already, some analysts are describing the storm as an “October surprise”Ah, Nate Silver, the new boyfriend of the chattering class. Everyone wants a piece of him and his methodology. We know he's constantly surrounded by models, but would he like to be surrounded by a different kind of model? He should be warned, thoughWow, this Nate Silver guy sure is something. His relentless statistical simulations called the election perfectly, like months before it even happened, and he stuck to his guns while right-wing pundits dismissed his models asThe presidential election is finally over and Nate Silver won. It was a "revenge of the nerds" moment: The data geek bested many of the cool kid pundits and their time-honored tradition of predicting election results based on
Related External LinksIs Election Predictor Nate Silver A Witch? Probably. And Quantified ...Nate Silver vs. Kim Jong Un - By Amy B. Zegart | Foreign PolicyA Few Thoughts on Nate Silver | The Baseline

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